Quarterfinal predictions

Posted on July 3, 2014 by robpeecher

Well, that Round of 16 shot holes all through my bracket!

I was wrong with Brazil, Colombia and Belgium. I should have just picked group winners to advance and I’d have been fine (for the first time ever, all 8 group winners advanced).

Here’s what I got wrong: Brazil v. Chile (I had Chile to win); Colombia v. Uruguay (I had Uruguay to win); and USA v. Belgium (I had the United States advancing).

I conceded up front that Brazil and Colombia could very well win their games. It was tough to know how Uruguay would react without Suarez (and I didn’t expect them to crumble). Chile took Brazil to PKs, so I was justified in thinking they might go, but Julio Ceasar was great (and got away with coming off his line during the PK shootout).

The other one I got wrong was the USA v. Belgium game, and let’s be honest, I couldn’t be an Alexi Lalas and go against my country. Besides, I really did think we would beat Belgium, even though I acknowledged that they are an outstandingly talented team.

Here are my predictions for the Quarter Finals:

France v. Germany (7/4 at noon est):

France have been great through the World Cup. They’ve scored a lot of goals and done really well. If you’re a French supporter, you have every reason to have belief and be excited.

Germany advance.

Brazil v. Colombia (7/4 at 4 p.m. est):

You don’t want to miss this game! This should be great. Colombia are riding a wave of confidence and storybook success. Can they do it? Can they make it to the final? Probably not. They’ve played Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan and Uruguay. If the USMNT had this path, we’d be in the quarter finals, too.

Brazil, meanwhile, should be the absolute favorites for this World Cup. They are unquestionably one of the top footballing nations in the world, consistently producing some of the greatest players every generation. And this team in particular has huge skill. But something about Brazil just doesn’t feel right to me. They don’t seem to be connecting the way they should be. Brazil will go out before the final, and Colombia may do it to them. It will be a good, close game. Ultimately, I think Brazil advances, but they have been so unconvincing in all their previous matches that it’s possible for a big upset.

Argentina v. Belgium (7/5 at noon):

Argentina have Messi, but the question I’ve been asking through this whole World Cup is whether or not Messi is enough. Sergio Aguero, who is a top goal scorer for Manchester City, has been suffering through injuries and hasn’t been there for Argentina.

As I said before the Ro16 game against the US, Belgium has immense talent. Barring unforeseen events over the next four years, I see Belgium winning the next World Cup in Russia. These guys are a young and hugely talented team. I thought their youth would be a disadvantage against the US and we could get through them, but the fact is the Belgians had great composure and saw that game through to the end. Late substitutions with fresh legs in extra time (Rom Lukaku) helped, but the few threats the US offered were dealt with. Can Kompany stop Messi? Maybe not. But can Messi score enough to compensate for Belgium’s offense that is sure to hit the back of the net?

This will be a good game. I give it to Belgium.

Netherlands v. Costa Rica (7/5 at 4 p.m.):

Costa Rica came out tops from the Group of Champions. They helped to send Italy and England home. Then they bested Greece in the Ro16. But let’s be honest about it. Italy weren’t all that great. England were awful. And Costa Rica beat Uruguay before Suarez returned. And Greece in the R016? I didn’t think Greece should have made it to the Round of 16 anyway.

Netherlands looked shaky against Mexico, and it came down to a controversial call at the end of the game for the Dutch to get a PK and win. Nevertheless, Holland came into this World Cup with something to prove after losing to Spain in the finals four years ago, and they are proving it. 5-1 v. Spain. 3-2 v. Australia. 2-0 v. Chile. 2-1 v. Mexico.

I like Costa Rica and have enjoyed watching them play, but I suspect the composure of the Dutch will overcome.

Look for Netherlands to advance.

While my bracket has been chipped away here and there, I have said all along this goes to Germany and the Netherlands in the final. I’ve picked the Netherlands to win it, but I’m starting to lean toward Germany. The Dutch were shaky against Mexico. They lacked pace and purpose for much of the game.

But through the World Cup, with a lot of games in a few days, top teams are going to have bad games. The best teams are the ones that win bad games in the knockout stages. The Netherlands did that.

I still see Germany and Holland at the end with an Oranje victory.

US Ro16 loss is hearbreaker, but we’ll be back

Posted on July 3, 2014 by robpeecher

The World Cup 2014 Round of 16 was the most heartbreaking thing since the World Cup 2010 Round of 16 when Ghana, in extra time, knocked the US out of the World Cup.

It was a tough game to watch on Tuesday.

Fabian Johnson went out early, forcing Klinsmann to use an early substitution. In a 120-minute game, an inability to get fresh legs on the field when your opponent does can hurt very badly.

Then there was Wondolowski’s missed opportunity.

Extra time.

De Bruyne’s goal. Rom Lukaku’s goal. It was all so bad. I was gutted. Devastated. When I chanted, “I believe that we will win!” I was serious. I did believe.

When I grow up I want to be just like Kyle Beckerman. I’ve already stopped washing my hair.

But then Julian Green scored one to bring us back! And everything was USA momentum! The entire game shifted as the US started to press hard. I’ve seen countless late equalizers. And if you’re Jurgen Klinsmann would you want to go to PKs against Belgium with Tim Howard having the kind of day he was having?

Of course you would!

When the fourth official held up his sign signaling 1 minute of stoppage time, Klinsmann and I both had the same reaction.

Klinsmann on the sideline could be clearly heard on ESPN all across America: “One minute? Why is one fucking minute?”

He was right, too. You’d had substitutions and injuries and we should have had a minimum of three minutes of stoppage time at the end of the second extra time. Maybe we should have had five minutes.

But it was one minute and that minute went by pretty fast.

In my alternate reality we got three minutes, scored the equalizer and Tim Howard blocked every single Belgian PK. Except Lukaku’s. In my alternate reality, Lukaku shot his over the post.

But in the real world, we beat our way out of the Group of Death and it took everything we had to do it. Did you see Clint Dempsey in the Belgium game? He looked like me after I’ve been playing for 15 minutes – exhausted. Clint didn’t have much in it.

Tim Howard had an amazing game, but Tim Howard is an amazing keeper. It’s common for him to make unbelievable saves. It’s just not common for him to have to make so many in one game.

There were other promising things you can take away from the game against Belgium: DeAndre Yedlin was great. If we’d had anybody who could have connected with his crosses we’d have won that game. People keep talking about Julian Green being the future of US soccer – and he may be – but I’d say look to Yedlin. There’s a kid who has the skill to take us far.

And hats off to Kyle Beckerman who was outstanding in this World Cup. I will forever be a Beckerman fan, and I get chills thinking about what a dream come true this was for him.

I have been a fan of Graham Zusi for a long time, and I think he did very well.

Jermaine Jones was also outstanding. DaMarcus Beasley is always, always, always solid, but in the game against Belgium he was extra special. He and Tim Howard both deserved to be rewarded with a win in that game.

Our back four have taken a lot of criticism. Geoff Cameron with the whiffed ball against Portugal, and Matt Besler, Omar Gonzalez and even Beasley for allowing Belgium to take so many shots and force Howard to make so many saves.

I’ll say this about our defense: They had a good tournament. They’re not as good as some of the teams they played against, and they were forced to work very, very hard because we did not possess the ball. It’s tough playing on a defense that is constantly on its heels and getting battered. You clear the ball away and look up and it’s coming right back at you.

I know it’s hard – I’ve played in those defenses many times.

You can blame the midfield for not possessing, but the midfield is too deep because they have to come back to help the defense.

The fact is, we weren’t good enough. Germany and Belgium were both better teams. We played them hard and created chances and frustrated them, but we just simply weren’t as good as they were.

I’m bullish on the USA.

There’s a lot of talk about why the US doesn’t do well internationally in soccer. The book Soccernomics has a great section about this and, I think, is dead on right. If you’re interested, check that out.

Ultimately, though, I think you’ve got to believe that it’s coming.

I believe that we will win.

In qualifying for the World Cup, we were the best among the CONCACAF teams, winning our group with room to spare.

It may take another four years or eight years, but soccer players in America are getting better. Right now we are developing top players, and with the MLS continuing to grow, they are getting more opportunities to play at a high level. I think we’ve passed the time when top American players had to look overseas for opportunities.

Yedlin plays for the Sounders. Zusi and Besler both play for Sporting Kansas City. Omar Gonzalez is at LA Galaxy. Beckerman is at Real Salt Lake. Brad Davis is at the Houston Dynamo. Wondo is at the Earthquakes.

These MLS guys played against some of the best players in the world the past couple of weeks. They took Belgium to extra time, held Germany to a single goal, tied a game with Portugal that we should have won and beat an African powerhouse that we have never beaten before.

For the past five Gold Cups, the USMNT has either won or come in second.

I’m a fan of the USMNT. I watch most all of their games – friendlies and CONCACAF and qualifiers. I love the USMNT, and I think Klinsmann (whose contract takes him through the next World Cup) is doing great things with this team.

Our time will come.

I believe

I believe that

I believe that we

I believe that we will win!

Celebrating little successes

Posted on July 2, 2014 by robpeecher

If you’re a self-published novelist or published through a small press, there’s a pretty good likelihood you’ve wallowed in a fair amount of self-doubt and self-pity.

If you see fireworks this week, almost surely they are being set off in celebration of my best sales month last month.

I think most indie authors discover that finding and connecting with potential readers is a more challenging task than writing the book.

I didn’t know what to expect in terms of “success” when I first published Jackson Speed: The Hero of El Teneria. I mean, obviously I wanted to sell a million copies and be on the NYT bestseller list for years. But I suspected that wouldn’t happen.

Now, after two years and four published books, I’ve learned that you have to find success where you can. Maybe you even have to redefine what success means. Otherwise, it’s easy to get terribly dispirited.

In June I had a pretty good run of “little successes.”

Toward the end of May I realized I was coming up on a milestone – 1,000 books distributed through Amazon. Around the first of June I achieved that milestone when I distributed my one-thousandth book. That’s not 1,000 sales, and that’s not all the books I’ve sold or given away, but it’s 1,000 books through Amazon (paperbacks and Kindle ebooks) both paid and free. The majority were free, but that’s okay.

Then over the course of the rest of the month, as I periodically checked my sales reports, I realized that I was having a good month. Again, this is scaled because we’re talking about a good month for me, not for Stephen King. But I was consistently selling books through the month of June and – by far – had my best sales month ever.

My month of little successes kicked off at the end of May when I received an email from a reader who contacted me through this blog. He’d read all three of the Jackson Speed novels and was complimentary. He favorably compared them to George MacDonald Fraser’s Harry Flashman books (which is high praise in my mind, because Fraser is among my favorites).

Fraser died in 2008, and for his fans it was devastating to know there would be no more Flashman books.

As I’ve noted before, I patterned the character of Jackson Speed after Flashman – a coward and a womanizer. As I’ve written the novels, I’ve felt that Speed has developed more into his own self, but the comparison to Flashman is obvious and will always be there.

Anyway, the email closed with: “Thanks for filling the void, but making it your own.”

That’s enormous praise. I can’t ask for anything more than that. If a Flashman fan thinks I’ve filled the void left by Fraser’s death, that’s as much as I can hope to do.

Still, it scares me to think that fans of the Flashman novels would read a Jackson Speed novel, because truthfully they must be disappointed. I’m not half the writer that George MacDonald Fraser was.

When compared to a lot of other indie authors, I know my sales seem pretty weak and my little successes insignificant (especially after two years of this), but I’m still feeling pretty good about the way June went.

So, I’m filing this under advice for indie authors: Don’t get bogged down in the disappointments. Whether you set small goals (1,000 books distributed) or just celebrate unexpected victories (a reader who enjoyed your book reaching out to let you know), I’m convinced that the people who achieve success as indie writers (or, really, anything) are the ones who persevere through the tough days so that they can enjoy the good days.

I’m big in Macao

Posted on June 30, 2014 by robpeecher

I don’t keep track of book sales on a regular basis. I’ll check sometimes once a week and sometimes once a month. Sometimes I go for longer stretches.

I’ve been pretty up front that sales – someone dropping $3 on one of my Kindle books – don’t happen that often. I’ve gone whole months without selling any books.

So checking sales figures can get to be a pretty depressing sort of thing.

I expect when I make it to England for a book signing tour the crowds at Trafalgar Square queuing up to get an autographed Jackson Speed book will look something like this.

Lately, however, my sales have been more consistent. Even before Jackson Speed on the Orange Turnpike was published I was seeing an up-tick of sales of the first and second books. In fact, there were times when I could see what appeared to be direct correlations of sales of Jackson Speed and the Blood Tubs (Volume II of the Jackson Speed Memoirs) two or three weeks after sales of Jackson Speed: The Hero of El Teneria (Volume I of the Jackson Speed Memoirs).

That’s great fun for me. If the conclusions I’m drawing are correct (and I’ll tell myself they are) then it indicates that someone enjoyed the first book enough to get the second book.

June was a great month for book sales, though. Usually I’ll see a spike in sales after I publish a new book, but I saw that spike in May when Jackson Speed on the Orange Turnpike was published at the first of the month. I expected things to slow down considerably in June.

But they didn’t. By my standards, I sold a lot of books in June.

I was interested, so I got deeper into my numbers, and I realized more than half the books I sold in June were sold in the United Kingdom. All three volumes of the Jackson Speed books had (for me) significant sales in the UK during the month of June.

This was a trend I saw a couple of months ago, too, where a large percentage of my sales were coming out of the United Kingdom, and several of the Kindle copies of Orange Turnpike that sold last month sold in the UK. In fact, someone in the UK bought the very first paperback of Jackson Speed on the Orange Turnpike.

Again, we’re talking about handfuls of books here, not boxes of books. I’m not getting on any NYT lists with my sales.

Nevertheless, I’m starting to wonder if I’m not destined for international stardom.

While I don’t look at my book sales regularly, I do look at my blog stats two or three times a week. I’ve posted a couple of times about the World Cup, and my hits from all over the world are unreal.

In the last 30 days, my blog has been visited by people in Brazil, Australia, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Ecuador, Canada, Romania, Bangladesh, Iceland, India, Colombia, Germany, Slovakia, Morocco and Macao.

I’m starting to feel like the old joke they used to say about celebrities whose stars had faded and who looked overseas to revive their careers.

“What’s Rob Peecher doing these days?”

“I hear he’s big in Macao.”

I’m not exactly sure what any of this means or how it becomes useful for introducing more people to my novels (since, ultimately, that’s the only reason I write a blog), so I’m just going to file all of this under the category: The internets is super cool. It just boggles my mind that I am able to write novels about a 19^th Century American scoundrel that people in England are interested in buying or that I’m able to make predictions about the World Cup that are read by people in Slovakia.

It’s a weird, wonderful world we’re walking upon.

Round of 16 prognostications

Posted on June 27, 2014 by robpeecher

We’re done with the group stages in World Cup 2014, and I’m offering my observations and predictions for the Round of 16.

I did okay in my predictions for the group stages of World Cup 2014.

Georgios Samaras celebrates screwing up my bracket by scoring a late PK against Ivory Coast to send Greece (or Grease, as a friend of mine saw it on the closed captioning).

I made my predictions after every team had played one game in the group stages, and so my predictions were based in part on the standings when the first games were over and on performances in those first games.

I’m not suggesting I’m 13 for 16 before the World Cup started. Prior to the World Cup I thought surely Spain would do better. I thought England and Italy would do better. I didn’t see those teams going out at the group stages until they’d all played their first game.

I got three teams wrong – I predicted Ivory Coast would advance out of Group C and Greece scored a late goal to prove me wrong. That was the one I got really wrong. The other two I only sort of got wrong because I didn’t care enough to think about it. Groups F and H were so exceedingly dull I couldn’t even focus long enough to guess what team would come out second.

Obviously Argentina came out of Group F on top and likewise I never doubted that Belgium would win Group H. I had Russia coming out of Group H in second place and Iran coming out of Group F. Instead, it’s Nigeria coming out of Group F and Algeria coming out of Group H.

Good to both of those African teams. At the start of the World Cup I’d have been more likely to put money on Ivory Coast and Ghana coming out of group, but it’s pretty much meaningless. I don’t see any way that either Nigeria or Algeria move on to the Quarter Finals. Russia and Iran served as placeholders for me, and they’ve just simply been replaced by new placeholders.

Here’s where I see the Round of 16 going:

Brazil v. Chile (Sat. 6/28 noon est): Brazil has been unconvincing and Chile has been amazing. Obviously, the good money is on Brazil moving forward. It’s a home crowd. Even by Brazil’s lofty standards they’ve got a decent side. It’s Brazil. However, I think Chile has momentum and I think for all the quality Brazil have when faced with a tough opponent they haven’t been stellar. Of the Ro16 games, I think this is one of two not to miss. I pick Chile to advance, and I’ll concede now the likelihood that I’m wrong.

Colombia v. Uruguay (Sat. 6/28 4 p.m. est): Luis Suarez did himself and his team a great dishonor with that bite of Italian he took on Wednesday. FIFA’s ban is too easy, in my opinion, but if you’re Uruguay it’s got to feel like a kick in the gut. I originally had Uruguay advancing out of the Ro16, and I’ll stick with that. Colombia are good, but Uruguay have more than Suarez. But I also had Uruguay advancing out of the Quarter Finals (where they will face winner of Chile v. Brazil), and I do not now see that happening. Suarez can score goals, but he’s a liability. I also won’t be terribly surprised if Colombia upset Uruguay. This game should be entertaining. And if you are Colombian, you have every reason to have belief in your team.

Netherlands v. Mexico (Sun. 6/29 noon est): Mexico have been great. You really have to feel good for them and for their manager that they’ve overcome a lot of the troubles they were having through qualifications. But I don’t see any way that they stop Netherlands from winning. Netherlands go through, and if I’m wrong I’ll be shocked.

Costa Rica v. Ivory Coast (oops!) Greece (Sun. 6/29 4 p.m. est): I didn’t see Greece getting this far and I don’t see them going farther. Costa Rica advances to Quarter Finals, and good for them.

France v. Iran (meh) Nigeria (Mon. 6/30 noon est): France was so good in its first two matches. The French drew nil-nil against Ecuador in a game they did not have to win. I don’t view Nigeria getting past a French team that’s been playing very well. France moves on.

Germany v. ~~Russia~~ (meh) Algeria (Mon. 6/30 4 p.m. est): Algeria rightfully celebrate coming out of group, but I don’t see any way that this game ends well for them. If Germany score four or five goals I won’t be surprised. Germany advances.

Argentina v. Switzerland (Tues. 7/1 noon est): Obviously Messi and Argentina are the favorites here, but Argentina had a weak, weak group and seemed to struggle to get through. Don’t be surprised if there’s a Swiss upset here, but I’ll stick with my original prediction of Argentina moving on. Messi will score goals, and I believe the Swiss defense has proved its ability to allow goals to be scored.

Belgium v. USA (Tues. 7/1 4 p.m. est): Though my bracket shows the United States making it to the semi-finals, I will confess that I had serious doubts about us getting out of group. Those doubts were there when I first saw our draw and those doubts were there when Portugal got a late equalizer in our second game.

But I have a lot of belief in what Klinsmann is doing with this team. I think the evidence is there – he’s making thoughtful substitutions, thoughtful changes from one game to the next. The US is not going to the World Cup with one starting XI but with several starting XIs based on who we play. Tim Howard is unreal and he’s having an amazing tournament. Dempsey is maybe the best player the United States has every put on a soccer pitch. I’m a huge fan of Zusi and Jermaine Jones and Matt Besler. DeMarcus Beasley is just consistently good. Fabian Johnson has done well. Beckerman is our unsung hero. At some point, Michael Bradley has got to start playing to his ability. He was better against Portugal and Germany, but I still don’t think Americans who have never watched him before this World Cup have seen how good he is.

Belgium, pound for pound, is as talented as any team in the World Cup. The players on the Belgium team range from the very good to the absolute superstar. Maybe Fellaini is the weakest field player on the team. Vermaelen, van Buyten, Vertonghen, Kompany, Dembele, Witsel, Mertens, Hazard, Chadli, de Bruyne, Januzaj, Mirallas, Lukaku. Good Lord! If you follow European soccer, these names are all well known to you. Mertens, de Bruyne, Mirallas and Januzaj are majestic soccer players, and Hazard, I believe, is a future winner of the Ballon d’Or (the prize that Messi and Ronaldo vie for year after year). Eden Hazard is wonderful to watch and I believe the best player currently in the English Premier League.

I will already pick Belgium to win the World Cup in Russia in four years.

But Belgium this year is a young team. I literally, no joke and no hyperbole, have shirts hanging in my closet that are older than a fair number of the guys on the Belgium team. Most of them are between 22 and 26 years old. If it weren’t for 36-year-old Van Buyten I think Vincent Kompany would be the oldest guy in the squad at 28.

Experience matters. Belgium hasn’t been in the World Cup since 2002. Most of these guys weren’t even teenagers the last time their country played in the World Cup.

If Belgium win against the USMNT no one will be too surprised. They were the fifth favorite team coming into the World Cup.

But Belgium didn’t have a tough group. The US has got to be coming into the Ro16 with a healthy confidence. We escaped the Group of Death. Through genius leadership from Klinsmann and strength and determination and grit the US got out of the Group of Death. But maybe it was more than that. Maybe American soccer is reaching a level where we can talk about the skill of the players and not just grit and determination.

I mean, Nani’s goal came down to a poor clearance from Cameron. Did Portugal out-play the US? Were they better? Jermaine Jones’ and Dempsey’s goals were goals we made happen. Nani’s goal was a mistake combined with some luck.

Mueller’s goal, too, doesn’t suggest a weak US side. Tim Howard cleared the ball, it fell to Mueller. Now – nothing away from Mueller – what a shot! But still, did the Germans really do us up? Zusi had a great shot. Bradley, too. Dempsey nearly scored. A few inches, and that US v. Germany game could have ended much differently.

We earned our way out of group, and though there were some nail biting moments, you’ve got to think maybe we’re a better side than what we get credit for.

Belgium, meanwhile, came out of an easy group with narrow 1-goal victories.

A year ago Belgium beat the US team 4-2. Michael Bradley didn’t play for the US in that game, but Hazard wasn’t playing for Belgium, either. Particularly on the US side, there were folks on that roster who aren’t even in our 23 in Brazil.

Outside of Brazil v. Chile, I think this will be the best game of the Ro16. Though Belgium has more talent, I think the US matches that with determination and strength. Maybe even some skill of our own. I pick the USMNT to advance, but it will be almost as tough as beating Germany. Which we didn’t do.

I’m excited for Tuesday’s game. I think it will be a great match. And, I believe that we will win.

Initial thoughts on World Cup 2014

Posted on June 20, 2014 by robpeecher

Now that we’ve seen everyone play at least one game, I’m making some World Cup observations and predictions. As I told my son last week, I’m not a fookin’ fortune teller, so don’t come yapping at me if I am completely wrong. I will know that I was wrong, I won’t need you to point that out to me, and I really won’t be interested in how you knew all along who was going to make it to the finals.

Clint Dempsey might carry the US all the way to the final … even with a broken nose.

Group A: Bra, Mex, Cro, Cam

Mexico and Brazil will advance, but neither team has been convincing. Mexico has bounced back from a terrible run of form over the past several months and seems to be firing on all cylinders again, but I do not see either of these teams beating their rivals in Group B.

Group B: Nth, Chile, Aus, Esp

Netherlands and Chile have both looked outstanding. I could see either team going to the final.

Group C: Col, Ivry Cst, Jap, Gre

Don’t be too impressed with Colombia – they have little competition in their group.

They will line up in the knockout stages against one of the top two teams in Group D. Potentially, I suppose, if Colombia face Italy they could advance out of the Round of 16, but I do not see Colombia beating Uruguay if that’s how it shakes out.

Group D: Costa Rica, Ita, Ugy, Eng

Costa Rica has been a surprise. I believe they are capable of beating either of the Group C teams they might face in the first round of the knockout stage.

With Suarez back it’s hard to see how Uruguay can be stopped from scoring, but whether or not Suarez has a complete enough team around him to keep from getting beat remains to be seen. England did not play a particularly good game against Uruguay and better opponents may expose weaknesses.

It’s possible that Costa Rica and Uruguay advance and leave two more European powerhouses not advancing out of group.

Group E: Fra, Swz, Ecuador, Hon
France looked very good in their first game (and as I write this just scored the opening goal in their second game against Switzerland). France could do something in this World Cup. I expect Switzerland will advance out of group with France, but I do not see Switzerland going beyond the Round of 16.

Group F: Arg, Ira, Nig, Bosnia Hrzg

Let’s see Argentina in the Round of 16, then we can figure out what they’re playing with. This group is a snooze fest. Anyway, Messi is always fun to watch.

Group G (The group of Death!): Ger, USA, Gha, Port

Yes. Germany. I can easily see Germany winning World Cup 2014. They are such a strong side.

The US has a big test on Sunday. If we beat Portugal and lose to Germany we probably play Belgium in the first game of the knockout stage. Having only seen Belgium play one game it’s tough to judge, but I think it’s certainly possible that the US could beat a very talented but young Belgium side.

It’s hard for me not to believe in the USMNT.

If we come out second in group, we probably play Belgium in the Round of 16. And if we advance there, it potentially is Argentina. Honestly, I think Belgium is tougher than Argentina and with some grit and determination, I think we can beat both teams.

Group H: Blgm, SKor, Russia, Alg

Belgium. Everyone else is uninteresting to me, but I love all my Russian followers on Twitter. Seriously. I do.

Prediction for the final:

I can see the US making it to the semifinals where we would likely face the Netherlands, and my expectation is that the Netherlands will go on to face Germany in the final.

Here’s my disclaimer: Anything can happen. That’s why we play the games.

With a couple of upsets, maybe Costa Rica faces Germany or maybe Chile faces Netherlands.

Maybe Brazil starts playing better and meets Germany in the semi finals, but I still don’t see how any teams beat either Germany or the Netherlands.

I expect the Netherlands, having been there and lost once, will fight pretty hard not to lose another final.

So while some of Europe’s top teams fall out of group stage, I do see two European teams in the final.

But, if the United States can topple the Netherlands in a massive upset, Germany can’t stop our momentum. Ultimately, it seems obvious that the USMNT should win.

Celebrating a milestone!

Posted on June 7, 2014 by robpeecher

ONE THOUSAND BOOKS!

It’s been a pretty good month for Jackson Speed and his editor (me).

Last month I published the third book in the Jackson Speed series and (for the first time) I spent some time creating a spread sheet with all of my Amazon.com sales (to include paperbacks and Kindle downloads, paid and free).

As May came to a close and June started, I realized that I was just eight books away from hitting my first big milestone. I had already distributed 992 books (that’s a combination of all four of my books) through Amazon.

I posted it on Facebook and a few of my friends were kind enough to drop $3 (or in a couple of cases, $12 plus shipping) to push me over the edge.

I’ve now distributed 1,000 books through Amazon.

These people are not celebrating the World Cup being in Brazil, they are celebrating 1000 copies of Jackson Speed novels going out through Amazon.

I know what you’re thinking: “Wow! A thousand books! This dude must be a millionaire!”

That’s what I was thinking, too!

But I’ve run the math with a calculator (twice) and I’m not a millionaire. If 1000 book sales were going to make me a millionaire, I’d have to be selling my books for $1000 a piece.

Besides, most of those 1000 books that I’ve distributed through Amazon were on free Kindle days where people were able to download the book for free. So I haven’t sold 1000 books through Amazon, but I’ve distributed 1000 books through Amazon.

Anyway … it’s a milestone all the same.

The hope is that the people who download the book for free will enjoy it and maybe come back for more. The truth is, most of the people who download the book for free haven’t read it and never will. When people see free books that interest them, they’ll frequently download the book but never come back to it (I’ve done it myself).

However … I have heard from a handful of readers who did download a book for free and enjoyed it, and that’s the neatest thing to me – being able to connect with people who like my books and are literally all over the world.

At some point, I gave up on marketing my books. I decided the more important thing for me was to write more. Book marketing becomes a full time job if you let it, and I have a full time job. I had to either market my one book or write more books. So I decided to write.

The extent of my marketing scheme now is that I post on Facebook sometimes, tweet links to my blog or books on Twitter once in a while, and I update my blog periodically.

The fact that I’ve had 1000 people get copies of my books with little marketing from me is a true blessing.

I’m still writing and still not marketing (though at some point I do plan to really start pushing the marketing), so 2000 books through Amazon may still be a year or two away. But that’s okay. I’m loving writing, I’m enjoying connecting with readers, and I’m having a great time making spread sheets that show that in one month there were 46 people who downloaded El Teneria for free and in the following two months 14 people bought Blood Tubs, the sequel to El Teneria.

Anyway … if you can count yourself among the 1,000 people who have gotten my book through Amazon, I honestly, truly, sincerely am grateful to you.

And if you’re one of the people who has sent me an email or a message on Facebook or a comment through my blog or if you’ve come to a book signing or posted a reader review on Amazon or in any way expressed to me that you enjoyed my book – again, thank you so much. I don’t have the words to tell you how much it means to me.

When you write and publish books, you take a huge part of yourself and put it on display for other people to see. When you read a book, you get a glimpse into the mind of the author – his thoughts and imagination are on display.

It’s a terrifying and embarrassing thing to expose yourself like that.

But … if you’re among those 1000, I appreciate what you’ve done to help make it a little less terrifying and embarrassing. I guess the real joy isn’t whether or not I’m making millions of dollars with my writing (although I am considering pricing Jackson Speed at the High Tide at $1000 when it comes out), but the real joy is having people respond favorably to the things I’ve written. Thank you so much for making these last couple of years writing about Jackson Speed a real joy!

* I should note that I’ve sold or given away many, many paperbacks, too (I don’t have good numbers on that, but somewhere approaching or maybe just over 200). So if you’re a Jackson Speed fan but you’ve never bought a novel through Amazon, I’m also grateful to you!

Jackson Speed Origins

Posted on June 4, 2014 by robpeecher

Fairly often I get some variation of the question: Where did Jackson Speed come from?

The “Jackson Speed Origins” is a story I enjoy telling.

Ol’ Speedy was born in May of 2012.

Seriously … this guy? A rogue? A rascal? A scoundrel? Make of him what you will, but the ladies all found him loveable (so he says).

At the time, I was reading two books. I had recently decided to re-read the Flashman series (it was going to be the third or fourth time I’d read most of the books) and was just starting on the first book in that series. I was also about 100 pages into Shelby Foote’s The Civil War: A Narrative.

This particular morning I was waiting for my wife to finish getting ready for work (we work together so we typically commute together) and I was reading Foote’s book. In it, Lincoln had just been elected president and was on his train tour from Springfield to Washington D.C. for his first inauguration.

Foote wrote a couple of paragraphs on the Baltimore Plot to kill Lincoln, foiled by Pinkerton and a what Foote described as “a female detective.”

And bam! just like that Jackson Speed had arrived to take his place in history.

It was, perhaps, the only true epiphany I’ve ever had in my life.

I saw the whole of Jackson Speed’s life in front of me: The Mexican-American War, the California Gold Rush, the American Civil War, the Congressional Medal of Honor at Gettysburg, Texas Rangers and Indians and outlaws and cattle wars in the Old West, the Hatfields and McCoys, Teddy Roosevelt looking on Ol’ Speed as a hero …

I even saw the mill at Scull Shoals burning.

I suppose I could have fashioned Speed after Horatio Hornblower or one of these other countless heroes who not only wrestle with the bad guys but also battle temptations that seek to turn them from their own ethical and moral codes. Though I like the Hornblower novels, and Robert Parker’s Spenser and Bernard Cornwell’s Sharpe (and Starbuck, if we’re talking about characters in the Civil War), those are not the characters who really spark my interest.

Han Solo (not Luke Skywalker) was my first favorite fictional character. I was a fan of the womanizing James Bond. Byron’s Don Juan, Fielding’s Tom Jones (at least in the beginning), and, the greatest of them all, George MacDonald Fraser’s Harry Flashman: – These are the characters who have always seemed like the most fun to me, and from them came Jackson Speed.

From the start, Jackson Speed was always going to be a scoundrel. I mean, the very first scene in El Teneria – the burning of the mill at Scull Shoals – and the entire premise of his journey to war in Mexico necessitate his two primary characteristics.

Speed’s only motivations in life are his own survival and his insatiable lust. It is much easier to write about a character who has no moral code to live up to.

I also like the conceit of these novels being Speed’s discovered memoirs – the reminiscences of a man whose years are running low. Because the series is held out to be Speed’s memoirs, written late in a long life, it gives him an omniscience that I think is necessary for the character. I also like that he is attempting to correct the record (complaining that Fitz Hugh Lee failed to mention him in Lee’s own recollections of Chancellorsville).

I have an image of Ol’ Speedy – the old man writing his memoirs – sitting in his study and thinking on the near escapes, the maniacs who constantly tried to get him “in at the death,” as he likes to say, and the women who frequently led him to danger. Especially the women. I love the notion of the randy old bastard remembering the women who loved him by the color of their nipples.

I wonder, too, as I write the novels, if Speed is being completely honest with us. Was he really so much a rascal as he paints himself to be? Was he really as awful? If you notice, he’s never bedded a woman who didn’t fall ass over head in love with him, and I have to wonder at that, too. If Jenny Rakestraw or Kate Cherry or Marcilina de la Garza had left their own memoirs for us to read, would they confess to being as fond of Speed as he claims they were?

I wanted Speed to walk a narrow line of loveable rogue – not the rogue part, but whether or not he was loveable. There are scenes when I’m writing that I think to myself, “Careful … you don’t want Speed to redeem himself here.” And that’s when I try to find something really nasty for him to do.

Regardless, though, I’ve really come to like the old guy.

A reader review posted at Amazon.com for El Teneria says, “The history is true and the fiction is fun.”

That’s what I was going for.

So if you’re interested in history and you think the bad guys have more fun, I hope you’ll give Jackson Speed a read. And if you do, please send me a note to let me know what you think!

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Sam Grant in a dress

Posted on May 29, 2014 by robpeecher

As I conduct research for my Jackson Speed novels, I am always learning bizarre little tidbits from history, some of which I try to incorporate and others I just enjoy for what they are.

For instance, were you aware that U.S. Grant wore a dress during the Mexican-American War?

The story is related by James Longstreet in his memoirs From Manassas to Appomattox.

Sam Grant as Shakespeare’s Desdemona in the Moor of Venice.

Longstreet and U.S. Grant were together at West Point. Grant graduated a year behind Longstreet. As young lieutenants fresh from the military academy, both were appointed to the Jefferson Barracks in Missouri. A lifelong friendship developed.

Longstreet was with Grant the first time he met Julia Dent (who became Grant’s wife). After the war, when Grant was president, he appointed Longstreet to a variety of government jobs. The two were close friends, despite having fought on separate sides during the War of Northern Aggression.

When the war drums started to beat in the new Republic of Texas and the United States seemed intent on answering their call, Grant and Longstreet both were ordered from the Jefferson Barracks to serve in the Mexican-American War.

Grant, particularly, distinguished himself in that war and was brevetted for valor.

But before the shooting started, there was much down time. In Missouri the young officers were accustomed to balls and hops and gay society. Down on the plains of Texas, there was little to relieve the boredom of waiting for the shooting to start, so the officers formed a small theater where they put on several performances.

They raised enough money among themselves that they were able to build a theater. Longstreet says that the performances were popular and that “the house was filled every night.”

Soon the young officers had money enough to buy costumes.

When they decided to perform The Moor of Venice, Grant was selected to play the part of the daughter of Brabantio.

So there he is – the future president of the United States, the man to whom Lincoln would turn to finally conquer Robert E. Lee and the Army of Northern Virginia – wearing a dress and playing the part of Desdemona.

But Sam Grant wasn’t long in a dress.

Lieutenant Theodore Porter played the part of Othello, and apparently Grant served as too poor of a love interest to inspire Porter’s acting abilities. Porter complained that male heroines “could not support the character nor give sentiment to the hero,” Longstreet says.

So the officers sent to New Orleans and secured an actress, Mrs. Hart, to come and “give sentiment” to Porter.

Porter was killed soon after by Mexican banditti.

I love these scenes from history that have been left out of text books and largely forgotten. These are the events that tend to humanize the people whose names you had to memorize in high school history classes.

And for me, I think it gives me a better ability to show my readers Sam Grant through Jackson Speed’s memory if I always keep in the back of my mind that Grant not only wore a dress but made such a poor woman that he failed to inspire Ted Porter.

Orange Turnpike free on Kindle today

Posted on May 26, 2014 by robpeecher

Jackson Speed on the Orange Turnpike is free to download for Kindle and Kindle apps today and tomorrow.
While it would be nice if I could sell hundreds or thousands of books, the reality of self-publishing is that getting my books in the hands of potential readers is a massive challenge. I’ve had success with previous “free days,” and I’m hoping to once again send hundreds of copies of a Jackson Speed book to new readers.

Click here to get your copy today!
So if you’re interested in history and like a good joke, download a copy of the book. Check it out and let me know what you think!

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