US Ro16 loss is hearbreaker, but we’ll be back

Posted on July 3, 2014 by robpeecher

The World Cup 2014 Round of 16 was the most heartbreaking thing since the World Cup 2010 Round of 16 when Ghana, in extra time, knocked the US out of the World Cup.

It was a tough game to watch on Tuesday.

Fabian Johnson went out early, forcing Klinsmann to use an early substitution. In a 120-minute game, an inability to get fresh legs on the field when your opponent does can hurt very badly.

Then there was Wondolowski’s missed opportunity.

Extra time.

De Bruyne’s goal. Rom Lukaku’s goal. It was all so bad. I was gutted. Devastated. When I chanted, “I believe that we will win!” I was serious. I did believe.

When I grow up I want to be just like Kyle Beckerman. I’ve already stopped washing my hair.

But then Julian Green scored one to bring us back! And everything was USA momentum! The entire game shifted as the US started to press hard. I’ve seen countless late equalizers. And if you’re Jurgen Klinsmann would you want to go to PKs against Belgium with Tim Howard having the kind of day he was having?

Of course you would!

When the fourth official held up his sign signaling 1 minute of stoppage time, Klinsmann and I both had the same reaction.

Klinsmann on the sideline could be clearly heard on ESPN all across America: “One minute? Why is one fucking minute?”

He was right, too. You’d had substitutions and injuries and we should have had a minimum of three minutes of stoppage time at the end of the second extra time. Maybe we should have had five minutes.

But it was one minute and that minute went by pretty fast.

In my alternate reality we got three minutes, scored the equalizer and Tim Howard blocked every single Belgian PK. Except Lukaku’s. In my alternate reality, Lukaku shot his over the post.

But in the real world, we beat our way out of the Group of Death and it took everything we had to do it. Did you see Clint Dempsey in the Belgium game? He looked like me after I’ve been playing for 15 minutes – exhausted. Clint didn’t have much in it.

Tim Howard had an amazing game, but Tim Howard is an amazing keeper. It’s common for him to make unbelievable saves. It’s just not common for him to have to make so many in one game.

There were other promising things you can take away from the game against Belgium: DeAndre Yedlin was great. If we’d had anybody who could have connected with his crosses we’d have won that game. People keep talking about Julian Green being the future of US soccer – and he may be – but I’d say look to Yedlin. There’s a kid who has the skill to take us far.

And hats off to Kyle Beckerman who was outstanding in this World Cup. I will forever be a Beckerman fan, and I get chills thinking about what a dream come true this was for him.

I have been a fan of Graham Zusi for a long time, and I think he did very well.

Jermaine Jones was also outstanding. DaMarcus Beasley is always, always, always solid, but in the game against Belgium he was extra special. He and Tim Howard both deserved to be rewarded with a win in that game.

Our back four have taken a lot of criticism. Geoff Cameron with the whiffed ball against Portugal, and Matt Besler, Omar Gonzalez and even Beasley for allowing Belgium to take so many shots and force Howard to make so many saves.

I’ll say this about our defense: They had a good tournament. They’re not as good as some of the teams they played against, and they were forced to work very, very hard because we did not possess the ball. It’s tough playing on a defense that is constantly on its heels and getting battered. You clear the ball away and look up and it’s coming right back at you.

I know it’s hard – I’ve played in those defenses many times.

You can blame the midfield for not possessing, but the midfield is too deep because they have to come back to help the defense.

The fact is, we weren’t good enough. Germany and Belgium were both better teams. We played them hard and created chances and frustrated them, but we just simply weren’t as good as they were.

I’m bullish on the USA.

There’s a lot of talk about why the US doesn’t do well internationally in soccer. The book Soccernomics has a great section about this and, I think, is dead on right. If you’re interested, check that out.

Ultimately, though, I think you’ve got to believe that it’s coming.

I believe that we will win.

In qualifying for the World Cup, we were the best among the CONCACAF teams, winning our group with room to spare.

It may take another four years or eight years, but soccer players in America are getting better. Right now we are developing top players, and with the MLS continuing to grow, they are getting more opportunities to play at a high level. I think we’ve passed the time when top American players had to look overseas for opportunities.

Yedlin plays for the Sounders. Zusi and Besler both play for Sporting Kansas City. Omar Gonzalez is at LA Galaxy. Beckerman is at Real Salt Lake. Brad Davis is at the Houston Dynamo. Wondo is at the Earthquakes.

These MLS guys played against some of the best players in the world the past couple of weeks. They took Belgium to extra time, held Germany to a single goal, tied a game with Portugal that we should have won and beat an African powerhouse that we have never beaten before.

For the past five Gold Cups, the USMNT has either won or come in second.

I’m a fan of the USMNT. I watch most all of their games – friendlies and CONCACAF and qualifiers. I love the USMNT, and I think Klinsmann (whose contract takes him through the next World Cup) is doing great things with this team.

Our time will come.

I believe

I believe that

I believe that we

I believe that we will win!

Round of 16 prognostications

Posted on June 27, 2014 by robpeecher

We’re done with the group stages in World Cup 2014, and I’m offering my observations and predictions for the Round of 16.

I did okay in my predictions for the group stages of World Cup 2014.

Georgios Samaras celebrates screwing up my bracket by scoring a late PK against Ivory Coast to send Greece (or Grease, as a friend of mine saw it on the closed captioning).

I made my predictions after every team had played one game in the group stages, and so my predictions were based in part on the standings when the first games were over and on performances in those first games.

I’m not suggesting I’m 13 for 16 before the World Cup started. Prior to the World Cup I thought surely Spain would do better. I thought England and Italy would do better. I didn’t see those teams going out at the group stages until they’d all played their first game.

I got three teams wrong – I predicted Ivory Coast would advance out of Group C and Greece scored a late goal to prove me wrong. That was the one I got really wrong. The other two I only sort of got wrong because I didn’t care enough to think about it. Groups F and H were so exceedingly dull I couldn’t even focus long enough to guess what team would come out second.

Obviously Argentina came out of Group F on top and likewise I never doubted that Belgium would win Group H. I had Russia coming out of Group H in second place and Iran coming out of Group F. Instead, it’s Nigeria coming out of Group F and Algeria coming out of Group H.

Good to both of those African teams. At the start of the World Cup I’d have been more likely to put money on Ivory Coast and Ghana coming out of group, but it’s pretty much meaningless. I don’t see any way that either Nigeria or Algeria move on to the Quarter Finals. Russia and Iran served as placeholders for me, and they’ve just simply been replaced by new placeholders.

Here’s where I see the Round of 16 going:

Brazil v. Chile (Sat. 6/28 noon est): Brazil has been unconvincing and Chile has been amazing. Obviously, the good money is on Brazil moving forward. It’s a home crowd. Even by Brazil’s lofty standards they’ve got a decent side. It’s Brazil. However, I think Chile has momentum and I think for all the quality Brazil have when faced with a tough opponent they haven’t been stellar. Of the Ro16 games, I think this is one of two not to miss. I pick Chile to advance, and I’ll concede now the likelihood that I’m wrong.

Colombia v. Uruguay (Sat. 6/28 4 p.m. est): Luis Suarez did himself and his team a great dishonor with that bite of Italian he took on Wednesday. FIFA’s ban is too easy, in my opinion, but if you’re Uruguay it’s got to feel like a kick in the gut. I originally had Uruguay advancing out of the Ro16, and I’ll stick with that. Colombia are good, but Uruguay have more than Suarez. But I also had Uruguay advancing out of the Quarter Finals (where they will face winner of Chile v. Brazil), and I do not now see that happening. Suarez can score goals, but he’s a liability. I also won’t be terribly surprised if Colombia upset Uruguay. This game should be entertaining. And if you are Colombian, you have every reason to have belief in your team.

Netherlands v. Mexico (Sun. 6/29 noon est): Mexico have been great. You really have to feel good for them and for their manager that they’ve overcome a lot of the troubles they were having through qualifications. But I don’t see any way that they stop Netherlands from winning. Netherlands go through, and if I’m wrong I’ll be shocked.

Costa Rica v. Ivory Coast (oops!) Greece (Sun. 6/29 4 p.m. est): I didn’t see Greece getting this far and I don’t see them going farther. Costa Rica advances to Quarter Finals, and good for them.

France v. Iran (meh) Nigeria (Mon. 6/30 noon est): France was so good in its first two matches. The French drew nil-nil against Ecuador in a game they did not have to win. I don’t view Nigeria getting past a French team that’s been playing very well. France moves on.

Germany v. ~~Russia~~ (meh) Algeria (Mon. 6/30 4 p.m. est): Algeria rightfully celebrate coming out of group, but I don’t see any way that this game ends well for them. If Germany score four or five goals I won’t be surprised. Germany advances.

Argentina v. Switzerland (Tues. 7/1 noon est): Obviously Messi and Argentina are the favorites here, but Argentina had a weak, weak group and seemed to struggle to get through. Don’t be surprised if there’s a Swiss upset here, but I’ll stick with my original prediction of Argentina moving on. Messi will score goals, and I believe the Swiss defense has proved its ability to allow goals to be scored.

Belgium v. USA (Tues. 7/1 4 p.m. est): Though my bracket shows the United States making it to the semi-finals, I will confess that I had serious doubts about us getting out of group. Those doubts were there when I first saw our draw and those doubts were there when Portugal got a late equalizer in our second game.

But I have a lot of belief in what Klinsmann is doing with this team. I think the evidence is there – he’s making thoughtful substitutions, thoughtful changes from one game to the next. The US is not going to the World Cup with one starting XI but with several starting XIs based on who we play. Tim Howard is unreal and he’s having an amazing tournament. Dempsey is maybe the best player the United States has every put on a soccer pitch. I’m a huge fan of Zusi and Jermaine Jones and Matt Besler. DeMarcus Beasley is just consistently good. Fabian Johnson has done well. Beckerman is our unsung hero. At some point, Michael Bradley has got to start playing to his ability. He was better against Portugal and Germany, but I still don’t think Americans who have never watched him before this World Cup have seen how good he is.

Belgium, pound for pound, is as talented as any team in the World Cup. The players on the Belgium team range from the very good to the absolute superstar. Maybe Fellaini is the weakest field player on the team. Vermaelen, van Buyten, Vertonghen, Kompany, Dembele, Witsel, Mertens, Hazard, Chadli, de Bruyne, Januzaj, Mirallas, Lukaku. Good Lord! If you follow European soccer, these names are all well known to you. Mertens, de Bruyne, Mirallas and Januzaj are majestic soccer players, and Hazard, I believe, is a future winner of the Ballon d’Or (the prize that Messi and Ronaldo vie for year after year). Eden Hazard is wonderful to watch and I believe the best player currently in the English Premier League.

I will already pick Belgium to win the World Cup in Russia in four years.

But Belgium this year is a young team. I literally, no joke and no hyperbole, have shirts hanging in my closet that are older than a fair number of the guys on the Belgium team. Most of them are between 22 and 26 years old. If it weren’t for 36-year-old Van Buyten I think Vincent Kompany would be the oldest guy in the squad at 28.

Experience matters. Belgium hasn’t been in the World Cup since 2002. Most of these guys weren’t even teenagers the last time their country played in the World Cup.

If Belgium win against the USMNT no one will be too surprised. They were the fifth favorite team coming into the World Cup.

But Belgium didn’t have a tough group. The US has got to be coming into the Ro16 with a healthy confidence. We escaped the Group of Death. Through genius leadership from Klinsmann and strength and determination and grit the US got out of the Group of Death. But maybe it was more than that. Maybe American soccer is reaching a level where we can talk about the skill of the players and not just grit and determination.

I mean, Nani’s goal came down to a poor clearance from Cameron. Did Portugal out-play the US? Were they better? Jermaine Jones’ and Dempsey’s goals were goals we made happen. Nani’s goal was a mistake combined with some luck.

Mueller’s goal, too, doesn’t suggest a weak US side. Tim Howard cleared the ball, it fell to Mueller. Now – nothing away from Mueller – what a shot! But still, did the Germans really do us up? Zusi had a great shot. Bradley, too. Dempsey nearly scored. A few inches, and that US v. Germany game could have ended much differently.

We earned our way out of group, and though there were some nail biting moments, you’ve got to think maybe we’re a better side than what we get credit for.

Belgium, meanwhile, came out of an easy group with narrow 1-goal victories.

A year ago Belgium beat the US team 4-2. Michael Bradley didn’t play for the US in that game, but Hazard wasn’t playing for Belgium, either. Particularly on the US side, there were folks on that roster who aren’t even in our 23 in Brazil.

Outside of Brazil v. Chile, I think this will be the best game of the Ro16. Though Belgium has more talent, I think the US matches that with determination and strength. Maybe even some skill of our own. I pick the USMNT to advance, but it will be almost as tough as beating Germany. Which we didn’t do.

I’m excited for Tuesday’s game. I think it will be a great match. And, I believe that we will win.

Initial thoughts on World Cup 2014

Posted on June 20, 2014 by robpeecher

Now that we’ve seen everyone play at least one game, I’m making some World Cup observations and predictions. As I told my son last week, I’m not a fookin’ fortune teller, so don’t come yapping at me if I am completely wrong. I will know that I was wrong, I won’t need you to point that out to me, and I really won’t be interested in how you knew all along who was going to make it to the finals.

Clint Dempsey might carry the US all the way to the final … even with a broken nose.

Group A: Bra, Mex, Cro, Cam

Mexico and Brazil will advance, but neither team has been convincing. Mexico has bounced back from a terrible run of form over the past several months and seems to be firing on all cylinders again, but I do not see either of these teams beating their rivals in Group B.

Group B: Nth, Chile, Aus, Esp

Netherlands and Chile have both looked outstanding. I could see either team going to the final.

Group C: Col, Ivry Cst, Jap, Gre

Don’t be too impressed with Colombia – they have little competition in their group.

They will line up in the knockout stages against one of the top two teams in Group D. Potentially, I suppose, if Colombia face Italy they could advance out of the Round of 16, but I do not see Colombia beating Uruguay if that’s how it shakes out.

Group D: Costa Rica, Ita, Ugy, Eng

Costa Rica has been a surprise. I believe they are capable of beating either of the Group C teams they might face in the first round of the knockout stage.

With Suarez back it’s hard to see how Uruguay can be stopped from scoring, but whether or not Suarez has a complete enough team around him to keep from getting beat remains to be seen. England did not play a particularly good game against Uruguay and better opponents may expose weaknesses.

It’s possible that Costa Rica and Uruguay advance and leave two more European powerhouses not advancing out of group.

Group E: Fra, Swz, Ecuador, Hon
France looked very good in their first game (and as I write this just scored the opening goal in their second game against Switzerland). France could do something in this World Cup. I expect Switzerland will advance out of group with France, but I do not see Switzerland going beyond the Round of 16.

Group F: Arg, Ira, Nig, Bosnia Hrzg

Let’s see Argentina in the Round of 16, then we can figure out what they’re playing with. This group is a snooze fest. Anyway, Messi is always fun to watch.

Group G (The group of Death!): Ger, USA, Gha, Port

Yes. Germany. I can easily see Germany winning World Cup 2014. They are such a strong side.

The US has a big test on Sunday. If we beat Portugal and lose to Germany we probably play Belgium in the first game of the knockout stage. Having only seen Belgium play one game it’s tough to judge, but I think it’s certainly possible that the US could beat a very talented but young Belgium side.

It’s hard for me not to believe in the USMNT.

If we come out second in group, we probably play Belgium in the Round of 16. And if we advance there, it potentially is Argentina. Honestly, I think Belgium is tougher than Argentina and with some grit and determination, I think we can beat both teams.

Group H: Blgm, SKor, Russia, Alg

Belgium. Everyone else is uninteresting to me, but I love all my Russian followers on Twitter. Seriously. I do.

Prediction for the final:

I can see the US making it to the semifinals where we would likely face the Netherlands, and my expectation is that the Netherlands will go on to face Germany in the final.

Here’s my disclaimer: Anything can happen. That’s why we play the games.

With a couple of upsets, maybe Costa Rica faces Germany or maybe Chile faces Netherlands.

Maybe Brazil starts playing better and meets Germany in the semi finals, but I still don’t see how any teams beat either Germany or the Netherlands.

I expect the Netherlands, having been there and lost once, will fight pretty hard not to lose another final.

So while some of Europe’s top teams fall out of group stage, I do see two European teams in the final.

But, if the United States can topple the Netherlands in a massive upset, Germany can’t stop our momentum. Ultimately, it seems obvious that the USMNT should win.